The highly speculative Indian guar market is relaxed on news of the monsoon arrival at the southern state of Kerala. We anticipate the Pakistani market will lag but eventually follow India. As you may recall, the direction of the Indian market is strongly influenced by the NCDEX (paper / leveraged trades). But the physical market (farmer / stockists) eventually needs to follow for the paper market to hold. Physical supply has tightened up.
There are pre monsoon rains in some of the guar areas. These are welcome and good for conditioning the soil. The next symbolic date for the monsoon advancement is June 10 over Mumbai (the financial center of India). Thereafter, the industry will take its strongest weather cues on the following monsoon timeline coupled with actual rainfall over the guar areas. June 15 – reach the southern edge of Indian guar areas and July 1 – reaching Jodhpur the center of the guar areas and July 15 – reaching the western edge.
The AccuWeather reports will start next week and mark the 10th anniversary. Polypro contracts with AccuWeather to prepare a weekly forecast and recap of weather events over the major guar growing regions.