The IndoPak guar crop is progressing nicely. DIWALI is over and trading markets have resumed to normal activities. Harvest is underway and will increase over the next month. Dry conditions are needed and forecasted for the week.
Estimates on the total amount of raw material (new crop and carryover) from India continues to range from 17-23 million bags with consensus at 17-19 million bags. Worldwide export demand from India was 12 million bags or 300,000 metric tons of powder equivalent for 2016. 2017 demand was on track to reach 17 million bags (425,000 metric tons powder equivalent) based on the first 6 months of Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) export statistics. However, August and September US import numbers on the attached graph reflect a decline. (USA import data is available before APEDA export data.) As a result, worldwide demand will likely hit 14 million bags for 2017. 2018 demand looks like a repeat given O&G is forecasted to remain strong. (Graph – Jan 2015-Sept 2017 guar imports usa)
Pricing is more or less stable from the last report and continues to follow short term weather and demand/supply factors. We don’t foresee a significant event on either the demand or supply side in the physical markets to support wild price fluctuations over the next 3 months.
Please balance our comments with others.